One of the most popular ways of measuring a cyclist's performance on flat terrain is functional threshold power, and Zwift provides riders with three different FTP tests. My FTP is generally around 210-230 watts.

But for those of us who aren’t afraid of hills, the best measure of climbing performance is one's time to climb the Alpe du Zwift, the virtual equivalent of France’s famous Alpe d’Huez. There’s even a highly sought-after “Liftoff” achievement badge for doing the 7.6-mile 3,400-foot climb in under an hour.

While I haven’t been able to break that barrier, I have done 30 ascents, which is enough data for me to draw some inferences. Since my average power on those attempts has varied from 162 to 234 watts, my times have also ranged from from 88 minutes to just under 63 minutes.

Now things start getting really geeky. You have been warned.

You would expect that if I plunked those numbers down on a scatter chart, there’d be a clear relationship between average power and time. And that’s exactly what I found. Then I added a statistical trendline, which matched my data points shockingly well (an r-square of 0.98 for the statisticians in the audience).

Now here’s where it starts getting interesting. Using that line, for any given average power, we can predict — with near-perfect precision — how long the climb would take me. Specifically, my (slightly simplified) equation is:

minutes = (watts - 400) / -2.76

So putting out 200W, I would finish in 73:13. At 220W, I would finish about seven minutes faster, at 65:58. And in fact we see clusters of past results right around those points.

Whether you use the equation or eyeball the trendline, that calculation also works in reverse, starting with a finish time and seeing what power you’d need to hold. So in order to earn the Liftoff badge by doing the ascent within 60 minutes, I would need to maintain an average power of 236.5 watts for an hour.

This does ignore the second variable that determines one’s ascending speed: weight. Conveniently, my weight doesn’t fluctuate much at all, so I can safely ignore it. But someone else with a different weight would have a somewhat different equation.

That’s why climbers focus on power over weight rather than raw power. Their preferred metric is watts per kilogram, or W/kg. If I re-did this chart using W/kg, it should be an even closer fit.

Among riders chasing the Liftoff badge there’s a common shared belief that you have to maintain 3.1 W/kg in order to climb the Alpe in less than an hour. Now we can put that idea to the mathematical test.

My equation says I would need to put out 236.5W. In order for that to equate to 3.1 W/kg, I would have to weigh 76.3kg. Lo and behold, that’s smack in the middle of my normal weight range, and within two pounds of my current weight. So that validates both my trendline equation as well as the common rumor.

To repeat: to climb the Alpe in an hour at my current weight, I’d have to produce 236W. However, my maximum sustainable power has stayed firmly in the 210-230W range. Alternately, rather than increasing my power output I could lose weight and still hit 3.1 W/kg. At 230W, I would have to get down to 164 pounds, which is pretty extreme for me.

After 30 attempts — and approaching 60 years of age — I won’t be disappointed if I never earn that Liftoff badge. But I enjoy analyzing my performances over time and finding the patterns of consistency that underlie them.

Winnertime

Apr. 20th, 2020 11:24 am

At this time last year, I summarized my first winter using a smart trainer and Zwift to maintain fitness. Now this year's spring blogpost is due, even though the Corona virus and shelter-in-place orders will extend the indoor riding season into April, and May, and June, and...

But let’s start with the good news and winter happenings before turning to the more unpleasant, ominous future.

The Harrogate UCI World Champs course

The Harrogate UCI World Champs course

Epic KoM

Epic KoM

Scenic ride through Titans Grove

Scenic ride through Titans Grove

Not a bad day, for December!

Not a bad day, for December!

My Xmas gift: the Tron bike

My Xmas gift: the Tron bike

New Year's in the Italian village

New Year's in the Italian village

Combo Jersey

Combo Jersey

Halloween dinosaur on a mountain bike

Halloween dinosaur on a mountain bike

The Herd kit

The Herd kit

In the six months from October through March I rode 2,830 miles, 99 percent of them on the indoor trainer. I did one-third more riding than the previous winter, mostly because I didn’t get my trainer until December of that year.

In that time, Zwift has given us a lot of changes and additions. The most noteworthy were the addition of the undulating Titans Grove route, the Yorkshire UCI World Championship course, the short Crit City expansion, and a much needed redo of the half-baked Richmond (Virginia) UCI course. Zwift introduced mountain bikes and even tested steering in a short off-road path. And they debuted individual and team time trials, although I haven’t tried those as of yet.

And one has to mention how well Zwift have handled the dramatic and unexpected growth in usership resulting from the Corona virus lockdowns. A year ago, it was noteworthy if there were 10,000 to 15,000 people Zwifting simultaneously. Recently we’ve been topping out around 35,000: three times last year’s peak.

The biggest farce of the year has to be the Fence, a tool that community organizers have long begged for, to help keep group rides together. I found it inconvenient and fiddly. And ride leaders only transitioned their whining about fly-away riders to complaining about people merely riding close to the Fence. Plus Zwift botched the implementation so horribly that they had to withdraw the feature after a short time.

Meanwhile I made a few improvements to my own Zwifting setup. The biggest win was buying a smart outlet, which allowed me to turn on my cooling fan using my smartphone, without getting off the bike. I also wrote a background program called zwift-pic-monitor that automatically displays any screen shots I take while riding (normally Zwift saves each photo but doesn't show it). And I added a new IRL cycling jersey to my already large collection when The Herd—the club I ride with on Zwift—completed its long-awaited design.

On the negative side, I’ve been plagued by chain drops and slippage, particularly during high-power sprinting efforts. I’ve already installed a new chain, so I suspect my outer chainring is worn; however, I can’t verify or fix that at the bike shop until the current Corona virus lockdown is lifted.

That brings us to this winter's achievements; it’s quite a list.

In December I completed my first year on Zwift. Disappointingly, I never got the anniversary email they usually send out.

I finished the December 100-mile mission, the April 250k mission, the Italy and Everest challenges, the 5-stage Tour of London, the 7-stage Tour de Zwift, the 3-stage fondo series, and the 3-stage Haute Route Watopia. I rode 16 stages of the (nominally 5-stage) Tour of Watopia because they were doling out double experience points; but I only did one out of 3 stages of the Tour of Innsbruck. I earned the Zwift mountain bike & tires, acquired the Zipp 808/Super9 disc wheelset, and was awarded the much-coveted Meilenstein Lightweight wheels upon completing my 10th ascent of the formidable Alpe du Zwift.

I started the now-poorly-titled “off-season” at Level 26, and am currently at Level 38. But after two winters I’m only 56 percent of the way to the current max level (50) because it takes lots more XP to level-up at higher levels.

And then we get into the really noteworthy stuff...

After ascending 5.7 times the height of Mt. Everest, I earned Zwift’s Tron “Concept” bike. Everyone covets it because it takes a long time to get and has ostentatious glowing tires. Although noteworthy, it’s tacky and doesn’t perform any better than several “real” in-game bicycles, so it’s of little interest to me.

I earned the Masochist badge for completing 25 ascents of the Alpe du Zwift. That’s hard and also takes time to complete. A nice, respectable achievement. Tho I’ve just about given up on breaking the 60 minute ascent barrier.

I’ve already written about completing Zwift’s challenge for completing each of the in-game routes: first an initial 25 routes, then the full 67 routes. The second set was my most memorable and noteworthy achievement of the year, because it included several of Zwift’s hardest courses.

The longest of those routes was 107 miles, and I also extended the second-longest one to 100 miles. As you know, 100+ mile rides are how I judge my year. The following week I notched a third one by repeating the 33-mile Stage 1 of the Watopia Tour three times in one day.

With my usual real-world events being cancelled due to the Corona virus, I’m hoping to do rides on Zwift that match the distance and climbing of the outdoor centuries I’ll miss. The first of those was a challenging 200k (125 miles) with 8,400 feet of climbing that I completed yesterday, but that deserves its own separate blogpost. However, that means I’ve already completed four “Zentury” rides so far this year.

Mimicking my first IRL event is a segue to where my training stands now. In a normal year, I’d use this space to summarize my level of fitness and preparedness for the transition to upcoming spring events. Although outdoor riding is going to be severely curtailed, there’s still good reason to review where my fitness stands.

My Chronic Training Load (CTL) bottomed out around 50 at the end of October, as I recovered from a strained achilles, but the aforementioned route challenge motivated me to train hard through November, December, and January. By New Year's, my CTL had risen to 80, which exceeds my usual summertime peak. After those two Zenturies to complete the route challenge, my CTL maxed out at 98, setting a new and unexpected all-time fitness record—in January! Since then, I’ve let it subside back down to 75, which is still above my summertime peak form.

While recovering from last fall’s injury, I produced a disappointing 197W back in my November Functional Threshold Power (FTP) test; but in February I bounced back up to 215W, and a subsequent Alpe run bumped it up to 227W, which are both closer to what I would expect when I’m in form. I’ll see where I stand again in May.

Based on my CTL and FTP, I’m in great shape for whatever riding I'll do, indoors or out. But thanks to the Corona virus, it’ll be more of the former than the latter. All my group rides and major events in April, May, and most of June have been cancelled, and I expect that will also be the case through July at least.

It might make sense, then, to revisit the goals I set for this year. Ironically, four months ago, I wrote the following:

I don’t really expect to surpass my 2019 season, due to this year's confluence of circumstances. Will 2020 also feature great weather, limited travel, no job commitment, and an understanding partner who will loan me her car to get to distant rides? And can I continue to evade the growing concerns of age and health?

While I couldn’t foresee cancellation of the entire cycling calendar along with all other public gatherings, I was skeptical that 2020 would be as good as 2019. That was eerily prescient, huh? Barely two weeks into spring we knew that unless the trajectory of the pandemic suddenly changed, there would be no outdoor centuries for me this summer. We’re left now to do what we can with what we’ve got.

That’s why I can’t tell you how glad I am that I bought my smart trainer and started Zwifting in 2018, so that my indoor setup was up and running a year before we were ordered to shelter in place. I hesitate to imagine how stir-crazy I’d be now if I wasn’t set up for indoor riding!

But I’m not looking forward to spending one of my remaining summers inside. I already miss being warmed by the sun, fresh air, being out in nature, exploring new places, and making lasting memories. But putting miles down on the turbo is infinitely better than not riding at all… or being deceased.

Stay tuned, and stay indoors!

I was so proud when I completed all 25 of Zwift’s course achievements that I wrote about it in a December 1st blogpost.

Route Achievements

Six days later, Zwift decided to add 42 new course badges, including ones for all their most difficult routes. Sigh.

I guess the upside of having 42 new carrots to chase was that completing them gave me enough Experience Point bonuses to rise from Level 29 to 33 over the course of December and January.

And all that riding helped me reach a new all-time record level of fitness, as measured by a Chronic Training Load score of 98.18… in January!

By February 1st, I'd earned 65 course badges, with only the two hardest routes left to do: the hellaciously hilly “Über Pretzel”, and the tedious and repetitive 11-lap “PRL Full”.

Both of those wound up being “Zenturies”: indoor Zwift rides of more than 100 miles. Since I post about each ride that surpasses that distance, here’s a little about how they went.

The Über Pretzel is beastly. It finishes at the summit of the Alpe du Zwift, an accurate copy of the real-world Alpe d’Huez. But when you hit the Alpe you’ve already got 72 miles in your legs and 4,200 feet of climbing, including the Radio Tower: the steepest climb in Zwift. And yes, I only have an 11-28 cassette and always ride with the trainer incline realism set to 100%.

Epic KoM

Although the route finishes at the Alpe summit, there’s no reason not to coast down the descent to earn more effort-free XP. And once you reach the bottom at Mile 88, why not ride the extra 12 miles to complete a full imperial century?

I rode the Über Pretzel on Thu Feb 13. It was sheer, unadulterated torture, taking 6h52m and leaving my legs and knees shattered. The upside: I reached Level 34 and got halfway to Level 35, and completed my 17th Alpe (you get the “Masochist” badge after 25 ascents). Plus you never have to ride that brutal route ever again!

The PRL Full is Zwift’s longest and only imperial century route. It’s a stupefying eleven and a half laps of their “London Loop”, which includes a (comparatively) gentle ascent up the Box Hill climb. But after eleven laps, you’ve actually done more climbing than the Über Pretzel, albeit spread out more evenly. I undertook the PRL Full on Feb 20, a week after the Über Pretzel with a couple easy recovery rides in-between.

It started very inauspiciously. First, I forgot to consult when London was on Zwift’s calendar, so I had to use the World Hack to get in. That in turn meant an empty course, with no one to draft. Considered running a TT bike instead of my usual climbing bike, but didn’t want the climbing penalty, so opted for the Tron Bike: a rare instance where I’d consider using it. Then, about ¾ through my first lap (after my first ascent of Box Hill), I was sent off course by the “repositioning the camera with a turn coming up” bug, and rather than turn around, ride 100 miles hoping Zwift would still recognize the route, I simply quit and started over.

Combo Jersey

After that, it was just plod on, for another eleven ascents of Box Hill. Combined, the two rides took 7h45m for 116 miles. But with so few riders on course, half the ride I had the special “fastest lap” jersey, and I had both that and the KoM jersey another 25% of the time: a cheap victory, but rewarding. Along the way I also earned the Italy Challenge’s Pinerallo F8 bike.

In completing the PRL Full, I had done Zwift’s longest route, finished my second “Zentury” in two weeks, and finally completed all 67 of Zwift’s badge-earning courses: an arduous and challenging achievement. And the XP bonus bumped me up to Level 35, which means I can buy the fast Zipp 808 & rear disc wheelset.

In the larger scheme of things, I’ve done my first two centuries of the year already, but have no more in-game carrots to chase. That’s okay for now—I could use a few days’ rest!—but it puts me in the strange position of peaking in January/February, with months before the road season begins! What to do? Mind you, I’m NOT asking Zwift to add more course badges... I’ve had enough of that, thank you!

My only remaining carrot is the Masochist badge, which requires eight more trips up the Alpe du Zwift. Not very fun, and not something I will achieve before outdoor rides relegate the trainer to the closet. But I guess it couldn’t hurt to knock out a couple more ascents before then...

But first, some incredibly well-earned rest and recovery.

I’ll admit it: I respond well to gamification, whether that’s keeping my streak of consecutive days of meditation alive on Insight Timer or—more pertinent to this forum—my indoor cycling on Zwift.

This fall Zwift added 25 new achievements to their existing set. The new ones are based on completing specific routes, which earn both an achievement badge as well as bonus experience points. A sucker for XP, I recently finished completing the entire set.

Of Zwift’s known cycling achievements, I’ve earned 57, leaving 7 badges that I’ve yet to achieve. And therein lies the rub.

Liftoff badge

One of them is simply a matter of time. Once you’ve climbed Alpe du Zwift—Zwift’s in-game copy of France’s Alpe d’Huez—25 times, you earn the “Masochist” badge. It’s a tough climb, but no problem there; I’ve already ridden it 11 times.

The second badge is too stupid to consider: the “Everest" badge for climbing the height of the world’s tallest mountain in a single ride. That’s the equivalent of nine Alpes back-to-back, which would probably take me more than 15 hours. That’s not fun; that’s just flat-out stupid.

Four of the remaining badges have to do with sprinting power. I’m no sprinter, but I’ve already earned the 500, 600, 700, and 800 watt badges; however, there are additional ones for hitting 900, 1000, 1100, and 1200 watts. I might conceivably earn the 900W badge, but it’d require a lot of force, shaking the trainer and possibly damaging my bike. But beyond that, I’m okay admitting I’ve never been capable of sprinting that hard.

And then there’s the final badge—the one that really irritates me—the “Liftoff” badge (above) that you earn for climbing the Alpe du Zwift in less than 60 minutes.

As of today, I’ve made 11 ascents, with an average time of 69 minutes and a best time of 62m46s. I’ve tried really hard, and come tantalizingly close.

It takes about 3 W/kg to break 60 minutes. At my weight, that means sustaining 230W for the whole hour. But my FTP—which is literally my maximum sustainable power over an hour—ranges around 200 to 220W. Unless I somehow get 5% stronger without gaining weight—or reduce my weight by 6% without losing any strength—the numbers unequivocally state that I cannot break the 60 minute barrier. Neither of those options are particularly feasible, and I’m not getting any younger here, folks.

And it’s pissing me off. I have no problem letting go of ludicrously stupid goals like Everesting; and I’m not bothered by challenges that are categorically impossible for me, like (literally) kilowatt sprinting.

But it’s this goal that’s perpetually just out of reach that irks me: something I could have done five or ten years ago, but can’t seem to surpass. It’s just too close to simply let it go and walk away from this particular challenge. So like a cycling Sisyphus, I keep destroying myself by attempting it—on the off chance it might happen—even though I know it will probably remain beyond my ability as an aging cyclist.

Psychologically, there’s a vociferous part of me that just can’t accept that it’s beyond me. I’m frustrated as hell; not so much because I can’t surpass the challenge, but because I keep listening to that goddamned voice and trying…

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